Friday, September 5, 2008

Anyone's guess

Nobody knows where the price of oil is going. Some say up, some say down. The reason we don't know is that we (and not just us peasants but the people In The Know) have ABSOLUTELY no idea how much oil is actually in the ground. This article from Business Week goes into the hows and whys of that.

I especially like this conclusion:

In other words, there's a big slab of unknown built into the price of oil. Lots of people will confidently predict where prices are headed next, but most of them, including the bulls, have been wrong more than once. Truth is, the world is almost as starved for information as it is thirsty for oil.

Husband has been reading The One Percent Doctrine which discusses American foreign policy and the War on Terror. Essentially, the US government has been operating on the premise that if there's a 1% chance of a terrorist attack then action should be taken.

Apply this to peak oil. Don't even use such an extreme requirement. Say there's a 50% chance of the Peaknicks being even halfway right. Shouldn't this be a call for a national effort on the scale of the lunar landing?


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