Thursday, May 29, 2008

The most depressing peak oil story of the week

What's scary about the current boost in oil prices, when seen through the peak oil lens? One fearsome thing involves extrapolating timelines. Here's Matt Savinar's alarm:
while it is still impossible to answer the question of "How much time is left", we might be able to use the price of oil and gas as some rough indicators of where we're at. We're hovering around $125/barrel and $4/gallon right now and already seeing significant slowdowns in the housing, banking, airline and automotive industries. Shutdowns likely begin around $200/barrel and $8/gallon. At $300/barrel and $12/gallon most everything simply stops.

But there's a silver lining: at least there won't be civil liberties problems with emergency measures...
I don't think you need to worry about the police state or the KBR camps much past $200/barrel and $8/gallon. At those prices, the economic machinery that simultaneously feeds hundreds of millions and imprisons tens of millions begins to shutdown. At that point, a cessation of food and fuel shipments is, in my opinion, much more likely than are mass round ups and imprisonment.
I'm off to fly in a giant airplane now. I'm going to land in a far-off state, and be driven around for a while.

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